UN warns world must slash emissions to avert 2.8°C warming

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on 21 October. Global temperatures have officially breached the 1.5°C limit.

To combat this, the UN warns that the world must reduce emissions by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. The report states that the world must also remove 320 billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere.

Current policies could result in warming reaching 2.8°C within this century, while delivering all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would limit warming to 2.6°C. Transitioning from fossil fuels requires reducing the coal share by at least 55% by 2035 and 75% by 2040.

Oil shares must drop by at least 15% by 2035 and 30% by 2040, while gas shares need to decrease by 5% and 35% respectively by 2035 and 2040. The lowest possible overshoot scenario limits peak warming to roughly 1.7 to 1.8°C by the middle of the century.

Antonio Guterres stated, "Overshoot is not surrender," and added, "We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century." Inger Andersen said, "Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year," and noted, "So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century," adding, "this is possible."

Renewable energy has boomed since the 2015 Paris Agreement, and climate policies have cut emissions in many places. However, new NDCs submitted since the last emissions report have hardly made a difference, and the total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected.

The Global Stocktake (GST), held from 2021 to 2023, includes goals to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, shift away from fossil fuels, reduce non-CO2 emissions, and halt deforestation. A second GST begins next month at UN COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye, while the United States is withdrawing from the climate deal.