Current El Niño represents the strongest on record and is projected to intensify, peaking around November or December. This climatic pattern is forecast to cause a severe drought across the Amazon, potentially eliminating some remaining rainforest areas.
Jeff Masters stated, "I expect that this super El Niño event will drive multiple climate regime shifts like we've seen after past super El Niño events." Furthermore, the combination of extreme El Niños and global warming possesses the capacity to trigger climate regime shifts.
The year's average temperature is currently set to match 2024's reading of approximately 1.6°C above the pre-industrial level. However, projections indicate that 2027 could reach 1.7°C or more above the pre-industrial level.
Michael McPhaden at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that "Many different processes are involved in the onset, maturation and demise of El Niño events." He added that, "So, at this point, it is difficult to know precisely how the current El Niño will wind down."
Computer models suggest that this El Niño cycle will conclude by June next year. Following El Niños, the Indian Ocean may experience warming, which could potentially cause flooding in nearby areas.
The worst floods in the Yangtze river occurred in the summer of 1998, following an El Niño that ended in May. Jong-Seong Kug stated, "We are experiencing a very strong El Niño event."
Kug further advised, "Based on our study, such an extreme event could substantially increase the likelihood that various components of the Earth system are pushed toward, or even across, regime-shift thresholds." Masters cautioned that, "Our civilisation is adapted to the climate of the 20th century, and it is costly and disruptive to be forced to deal with sudden climate regime shifts."
